This year will be a bit different. We all know that “watch parties” aren’t really the best thing to hold this time. Besides the obvious disease related reasons – there simply may not be much to watch. Due to the different ways that States tally votes, the prevalence of mail-in ballots in this Covid impacted year and recent history the chances are that networks will be EXTREMELY reluctant to make any calls unless they are absolutely certain about what they are predicting. This stems less from the results of the 2016 election (where the networks essentially had things right for most States, but the pre-election polls had things wrong) than it does from the lingering impacts of the 2000 election, where the networks royally screwed up the call based upon an incorrect reading of the data. This year, with the fragmentation of that same data, the feeling is that no one is going to go up the tree too early, let alone out on a limb.
That’s not going to be much help to the casual viewer who will want to know what the hell is going on. The anticipation surrounding this year’s election results might be the highest ever. Just read the posts on any social media outlet – “I’m a nervous wreck”…”I don’t care what the odds say, I can’t relax”…”I won’t sleep until I know for sure”…. The whole country is like an eighteen-year old high school kid waiting to hear about his girlfriend’s pregnancy test.
I’m no
exception. I’m pretty sure most people
know my political leanings, so suffice to say that if the results skew one way
I anticipate sipping a civilized glass of the fine offerings of the Emerald
Isle drawn from the bottle on the left, whereas if they go the other way I will
probably down the contents of the bottle of Le Fèe Verte on the right in one
pull. Either way, we’re keepin’ it green.
The problem, of course, is that if no one is willing to make a call on election night (likely) and there is only so much liquor available (also a true statement) – how the hell is anyone supposed to tell whether to pop champagne, coolly sip whiskey or chug absinthe until madness overtakes you? Here is where I step in to try and guide everyone through the expected torture of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning – I’m not going to go over the obvious things, like “If Florida gets called for Biden it’s probably all-over” or “If Trump wins Georgia then North Carolina is still in play” – those are the easy things to know. I’m assuming that we’re going to be in for a long night and that there is a very good chance that everyone will go to bed not knowing for sure who won. Instead what I’m trying to go for here are the sort of subtle hints that might give away what the people on the networks are REALLY thinking – even if they aren’t willing or able to come out with a flat-out projection on the night of or morning after the election. First, let’s review some of the basics.
A Few Simple Tools:
You are going to need a strong remote-control finger, a laptop, phone or tablet and the ability to jump around. Keep at least the following stops on your regular rounds so that you can see if there are differing approaches from the various networks: ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, MSNBC, CNBC and CNN. Each will take a slightly different approach but all will try to maintain their overall journalistic integrity. Even Fox, when forced to defend their projections, was willing to go up against key Republican operatives like Karl Rove to justify their actions. This does not mean that you won’t see slants and biases in the various coverages – just that when it comes to making definitive “calls” the networks won’t do it unless they are satisfied that a standard has been met. Given the likelihood that those standards will be quite difficult to meet this year the tone of the various networks will be important to discern – and that will mean jumping around a good bit.
I would also recommend checking out a few of the overseas networks to see what their takes might be. I’ll be watching Sky News, the BBC and RTE to see what their slants are – in the U.S. you should take advantage of being able to get firsthand accounts from some of the local news reports for the bigger stations in places like Boston, New York, Chicago and, if possible, some of the swing States like Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin and Georgia. So, switch from station to station and listen for some of the clues that we’ll discuss below.
Know the Timings
The 538 website has posted a very comprehensive guide to the various timings of when States will close the polls, when they will count their various ballots (absentee, mail-in and day of election), what the likelihood of being able to make a projection will hinge upon and whether there could be a shift from late-arriving results. You can find it here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
It is a VERY useful tool for knowing where to be ready to turn your attention. This year in particular the review of when to expect to have definitive results will be quite telling. This is partly because you’ll know when to not get your hopes up too high (no matter what candidate you are supporting) – but it is also in order to know when a given projection might have even more importance than you might expect.
For example, if you look at this list you’ll see that Indiana closes its polls at 7 pm Eastern time but that it is expected that it will “take a few days” to count all the votes. Most of those uncounted votes are expected to result in a “blue shift”, as per the notes in the left-hand column. Still, despite that, Indiana is considered a relatively safe Red state and you would think that if results go as would ordinarily be expected the networks would still be able to call the State for Trump after a review of the returns on the night. The one thing that probably keeps people from simply assuming that will happen is this – in the 2008 election Barack Obama’s most unlikely win was that of Indiana – a result that was completely out of left field. Knowing that – there may be some reluctance to call things too early in the night. If that reluctance drags on – if the networks are unable or unwilling to treat the possibility of the expected “blue shift” as something other than a narrowing of the margin – but instead feel that it might actually impact the result – that is a real indication that Biden has eaten into some of Trump’s strength. Watch for that – if it doesn’t happen it’s no big deal, but if Indiana remains uncalled – that’s the sort of thing that could be significant.
A more focused assessment of how the night might play out is located in another 538 article, found here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/ This is more in the nature of analysis and, while very good it has as its premise the idea that by tracking electoral votes you might, if things fall right, be able to know who won by late Tuesday night, early Wednesday morning. The key word there is “might” – the article itself acknowledges that this is a somewhat remote possibility given the methodology used to count votes in certain key states, this year’s prevalence of mail-in ballots and, as noted, the likely reluctance to call a State that most network’s will have. Instead, if you want to understand how things are actually progressing you’ll have to engage in the sort of tea-leaf reading that is described above in relation to Indiana. Is the State closer than it’s supposed to be? Is it revealing any trends that might apply to the nation as a whole? Would either of the two campaign’s look at the results and say “holy shit!” for any particular reason? More than the traditional projection - it may be that you’ll have to watch for those kinds of clues.
Here’s what I mean - another State to watch is Virginia. In the drama that came to surround Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida in 2016 it is forgotten that the first sign that things were not going well for Hillary Clinton was when the networks were unable to simply put Virginia in her win column. In fact – it was not until well into the evening that Virginia finally went blue – and that was despite the fact that a native son, Tim Kaine, was on the damn ticket. (Remember Tim Kaine? Yeah, me not so much either – I had to double-check the spelling of his last name again. It’s with a “K”. How quickly we forget). I was at a party with the U.S. ambassador in attendance last election – I was watching his face when this news was announced – he looked like he had swallowed a bad clam.
This year if Virginia creates the same problem it could be indicative that there is, again, a significant polling error that under counts Trump voters. On the other hand – if this time Virginia gets placed into the Democratic bucket early on there may be some greater degree of integrity to the approach toward polling this election. The last State polls showed Biden with an 11 point lead – so there would have to be a five point shift to really make the State appear competitive. In 2016, just so you know – there was about a five point shift.
To get those polling numbers you might again want to go to yet another page on the 538 website, located here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
There are also similar tools you may want to check out at: https://www.270towin.com/ and https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
I’m picking 538 for my main source in this article because I’m most familiar with their model and because I know that if they get things wrong too often their entire reason for existing goes away – so they have a bit more at stake when it comes to being right.
To use the tool
just find the State that is being reported on the telly, click on its space on
the 538 “winding road” and you’ll see data on what the polls SAID the result
would be. You might then want to compare
it against what you are seeing on the day to determine if there are any trends. Are the polls consistently correct this
time? Is there going to be a plethora of
“shy Trump” voters? Is the Biden lead
indicative of a blowout? This makes even
the States where the final result was expected meaningful. For instance – we
all know Biden will win Massachusetts – but are the margins living up to
expectations? Don’t over analyze but
watching these sorts of things will allow you to read more into what the
networks are telling you even if they don’t want to call a State or make early
projections. However, there is one thing
that everyone should definitely be on the lookout for. Given how reluctant the networks are likely
to be when it comes to making projections – if there is a clear upset that
everyone agrees on – if New Hampshire were to flip to Trump or South Carolina
to Biden – that’s obviously going to be huge.
Watch for those. The other thing
you’ll want to watch is to be found not necessarily in what the networks are
saying – but in the way they are saying it.
The turn of a phrase can often tell a great deal about what is really being said. When reporting on a diplomatic meeting the various Ministers and Secretaries say a great deal without explicitly saying, well, anything. For example, when you are told that a meeting was “frank and open” it generally means “The parties were at each other’s throats the entire meeting and we removed all sharp objects from the room”. When things are said to have been “genial and productive” it means “we all got along and we might even get an agreement out of this thing”. And, when talks are said to be “continuing” it can be taken to mean “we popped our heads in to see how things were going and they told us to fuck off”.
The same dynamic applies to network election reporting. Some of the things that are going to be said will be self-explanatory, even if they don’t come right out and tell you the result. For instance, if any candidate’s election night mood is said to be “somber” – either their dog just passed away or, more likely, they lost.
Here are some other key words and phrases:
Upbeat and Confident: They are pretty sure they won.
Guardedly Optimistic: Still in this thing.
Carefully Reviewing the Results: They think there could be trouble ahead.
Anxiously Reviewing the Results: Pretty sure there is trouble ahead.
Aware That They Face an Uphill Climb: Are updating their resumé cause they’re gonna be “entering the dreaded private sector” real soon.
Those are all things that relate to what the various campaigns might be saying. There is a whole other art to interpreting what the various anchors might be telling you. For instance – CNN is well known for its “magic wall” and anchor John King’s use of it. Up until now the 2020 wall has been used in this manner:
That’s nice, but the wall is really useful when it gets to the day of the election and King is able to break things down to the precinct level in the various States. That’s when you’ll hear things like “We aren’t prepared to call this State but, when you look at the map you have to wonder where those votes are going to come from”. The use of a term like “you have to wonder” is a giveaway and can most often be taken to mean “they haven’t got a chance to make this up”.
Over on Fox the sorts of magic words you’ll be looking for if things are going blue would be “the polls seem to be standing up”, “there do not appear to be any surprises on the cards”, “will not be a repeat of the swing seen in 2016”. If they are going the other way, or are truly up in the air, watch for things like “silent majority”, “deep reserve of support” and the aforementioned “shy Trumpers”. The term “egg on their face” would come up as well.
You also want to watch for the demographic breakdowns. Networks are typically less restrained when it comes to discussing their data in these areas, mainly because no electoral votes are directly tied in to how “college educated white women” vote. Nonetheless – those numbers can be critical, and if you hear the desks referring to “enormous gender gaps”, “Trump’s ability to close the gap with Hispanics”, “the collapse of the evangelical vote” or similar changes in demographics then be assured that these are designed to send you a message. One caveat – those demographics should be universally applicable. For example, if “closing the gap with Hispanics” comes up only in respect of Florida – that’s likely not going to be as telling as if the same effect is noted nationwide – Florida has by far the largest Cuban population in the country and their voting patterns are typically quite different from other populations that are designated Hispanic. The same could apply to groups like “college age”, “blue-collar” or “suburban” in any given jurisdiction.
Here’s another thing to avoid – you should not go too far down the road of trying to “read” intangibles. For instance, unless it is obvious don’t count on body language or facial expressions meaning that much. These people have probably been up for a long time, are wearing lots of equipment, are trying to hear people both screaming and whispering in their ear while talking to a camera – it’s a wonder more of them don’t break down in tears by the time this is over.
So – as you set up your refreshments, both solid and liquid, and get ready for a long night and morning of watching the returns here are the five key things I would watch for:
1.
How quickly does Virginia get called?
2.
Are
the polls holding up or is there a standard error being made one way or the
other?
3.
Are
there any key demographics that would be universally applicable?
4.
Any
clear upsets one way or the other?
5. What are the words on the lips of the anchors REALLY saying?
That said, I
sure hope I’m sipping Jameson’s, and not guzzling absinthe, in the early hours
of Wednesday morning.
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