Ouch. No way to sugar coat this one as a “good
loss” – it’s just a loss, and one that is exceptionally worrying at that. I support Dr. Fauci and all, but when did we
name him starting QB?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eD5xkn4WLA
Look, every
game in the NFL (even those involving the Jacksonville Jaguars) gets analyzed
TO DEATH so I’m not going to belabour the obvious points to be gleaned from a
game in which the Patriots were able to prevent the other team from scoring a
single touchdown but somehow managed to lose convincingly. There are problems there folks – and if this
was a normal year you would be saying something like “Wow, I’d hate to be those
guys when Belichick goes through the films with them” – but that ain’t easy to
do when you can’t have everyone in the same room for a meeting.
What we do
here is go through the esoterica that might be picked up from a given week’s
events – book reviews, “good loss” analysis, historical musings – that’s what
you get when you follow this space. In
that vein I have picked up on what I think are a few significant changes in NFL
practices as the result of watching a few of this week’s games.
1. Rules is Rules
First – how
about that Mike Vrabel? The NFL’s newest
poster boy coach has actually been killing it for some time now, but this past
week may have been his greatest moment so far – even bigger than beating up on
his one time mentor Bill Belichick in last year’s playoffs (the second time
he’s done that). Vrabel factors in all
three of this week’s topics, which, as a rough description, concern “Under the
Radar” areas where the NFL has seen some important changes over the last number
of years.
By this I
don’t mean the obvious things like rule changes to protect the QB even more or
revisions in the use of instant replay.
Those changes (and others, like “helmet to helmet” contact) were heavily
touted and publicized. I’m talking more
about alterations where a rule change or the manipulation of the same has had unforeseen
but significant impact. Since both
Vrabel and Belichick have come up already let’s start with one of my favorite
things – the use of “rule bending”.
Until
Vrabel came along the absolute master of these sorts of intentional acts was
Belichick. Some of the greatest of these
are simply known by a phrase – most Pats fans will know what is meant when you
say something like “the intentional safety” or “the Hoomanawanui plays”. The former was taken against the Denver
Broncos in order to secure possession of the ball in better field
position. The latter involved lining up
an ineligible receiver away from the offensive line so that the Patriot’s
tongue twister tight end could make a couple of crucial catches in a playoff
game.
But
Belichick has done other, similar things – my personal favorite being when he
took not one but two intentional penalties in order to burn time off the clock
against the Jets during a blowout win.
It is my favorite because the videos of the event show Belichick cracking
the tiniest bit of a smile as he realizes that the Jets were falling for what
he was doing, and, of course – because it was the Jets.
Vrabel
actually used the same rule against the Patriots (with a bit less success but
in much more impactful circumstances) last year. However – this past week the pupil may have
surpassed the master even further when Vrabel seems to have intentionally sent
an extra man on to the field in order to draw a flag for too many men. This forced Romeo Crennel to decide between
accepting the penalty and taking the resulting first down, or risking a loss,
turnover or inability to gain a yard when having a second and 1. Crennel took the penalty, the clock stopped
as a result, the field was shortened giving Houston less chance to burn the
clock – and even though the Texans scored there was still enough time for
Vrabel’s Titans to come back down and tie the game before winning in overtime.
More on this game later.
In
basketball intentionally breaking the rules (which is, after all, what fouling
as time runs out really is) is an accepted part of the game. To a lesser extent the same is true of hockey
and soccer – if you’re going to get beaten you might as well bring the opponent
down. But in football the manipulation
of the extremely complex set of rules is an art – and Vrabel and Belichick are
two of the coaches most worth watching just for their encyclopaedic knowledge
of how to practice that art.
Bonus Points
(Advanced Math Version)
Another
area that has experienced a change in importance, one that becomes more
apparent with every season, is the evolution of the extra point from a rote
exercise in automatic conversion to one of the more important decision areas in
the NFL. This stems largely from the
2015 decision to move the PAT back to the fifteen for kicks. Anyone who has watched the career of Stephen
Gostkowski, particularly in Super Bowls and playoff games, understands that
this has reduced the conversion rate to a material, and often a substantial,
degree.
This
change, when coupled with the 1994 change in the rules that brought the
two-point conversion into play has made the extra point interesting again.
There is a percentage sheet that coaches routinely use to decide when it is
best to attempt to go for two which is somewhat misleading. Part of the percentage review is based upon
how easy it is to gain two yards from a standard line of scrimmage on a third
or fourth down play. That is actually not
a like for like measure. The other version
of the chart simply looks at the conversion rate for two-point attempts – which
can also vary due to circumstance.
Still, the decision on whether to go for two should most often (but not
always) be driven by a percentage consideration. In this week’s Titan’s/Texan’s match up we
saw another instance where this is not always the case.
Remember
the intentional penalty above? The
Texans actually scored on that same drive – to go up 7 points with only 1:50
left. This left Romeo Crennel with a
decision on whether to go for two, making the game a two-possession one or
settle for the kick and make it a requirement that the Titans score both a
touchdown and a two-point conversion to even force overtime.
This is the
kind of decision that calls for more than just percentages. You also have to assess your own defense’s
ability to make a stop. If you believe
that there is a risk of actually having the opposition drive the length of the
field and score with less than two minutes on the clock – you probably think
there is an equal risk that they’d surrender two points from the two yard line. Obviously, Crennel had no confidence in his
defense – so he went for the two – and failed.
The rest is
history. Houston’s offense never touched
the ball again (discounting the kickoff following Tennessee’s game-tying drive),
and the Titan’s won in overtime.
I think I
speak for the vast majority of football fans when I say that I think these PAT
changes are really entertaining. However,
when Stephen Gostokowski missed the extra point against the Eagles in Super
Bowl LII I wouldn’t have been quite so vocal in expressing that opinion.
Swiss
Army Knives
One of the
primary criticisms of football, particularly the NFL, over the years has been
the tendency to specialize more and more as the game progressed. George Will made this charge explicit when he
was quoted in Ken Burn’s “Baseball” documentary saying “What mother raises her
son to be a “short yardage third down run stopping tackle””?
The
criticism has some legitimacy. Running
fat men on and off the field depending upon the situation was often comical at
best, boring and counterproductive at its worst. The good news is that in recent years the
game has evolved away from this model (somewhat) and has encompassed the
possibility that a single player could perform more than one role
effectively. Players that can be “Swiss
Army Knives” are at a premium. Once
again we’re going to look to our two favorite examples – Belichick and Vrabel –
to explain how this has happened.
Before
getting into that – let’s just take a second to marvel at the fact that there
is an army whose signature weapon is a pocket sized accessory that includes
scissors, awls, filleting tools and screwdrivers. Stealth bombers are great but they are a bitch
to carry when hiking. I just think it’s
a sign that the world is a good place when, in the middle of a war, a platoon
can stumble on to a house with a fully stocked wine cellar and, when someone
says “Damn, I wish we had a corkscrew” the Swiss corporal assigned as an
observer can raise his hand and say “Well, now that you mention it…”.
Mike Vrabel
is, of course, perhaps the best example of the football player as Swiss Army
knife. As every New England schoolboy
knows (or should know) Vrabel, during his career, had 12 receptions all 12 of
which went for touchdowns. This would be
noteworthy for someone whose job it was to catch the football, but is even more
remarkable when it is considered that Vrabel was a linebacker whose day job it
was to stop touchdowns, not score them.
The primary
architect of this philosophy of players doing more than one thing is,
unsurprisingly, Belichick – who has made this one of his primary considerations
when signing players, particularly free agents.
Troy Brown, one of my favorite Patriots of all time, should simply have
“football player” next to his name when they list what position he played. A
receiver by trade, he also returned punts (most famously for a touchdown in the
2002 AFC Championship game) and played defensive back for another Super Bowl
championship team, just, because – well the team needed a DB.
In this
past week’s game when the Patriots needed to keep drives alive and were worried
about Dr. Fauci (sorry, Cam Newton) being able to effectively throw they went
to Julian Edelman, the latest version of a Patriot’s multi-use player. Edelman
is the latest Troy Brown, and is perhaps an even better version. Everyone loves Jules – and they should. Here’s the thing - the best use of a Swiss
Army knife is when you find yourself in an emergency – and the real tool isn’t
around. Then you break out the
screwdriver, tooth pick, can opener or corkscrew and make due with the
alternative.
The
Patriots are finding themselves in a few too many emergencies lately.
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