Cam’s
Opening Bow
It was
great to see Cam Newton at QB with what has to be considered the best Patriot’s
debut at that position since, well, maybe since 1971 when rookie Jim Plunkett
beat John Madden and the Raiders.
Newton’s mix of efficient passing combined with planned runs has
generated a great deal of comment, with it generally being noted as a departure
from Josh McDaniels’ preferred offense.
I agree it
is a new look for these parts – but I’m not so sure about it being a switch
from the type of offense McDaniels would “prefer” to run. If the truth be told, McDaniels did opt for
exactly this type of QB in the past when given the opportunity – or at least
for someone he thought might be this type of QB. I harbor a sneaking
suspicion that the Pats’ offensive coordinator has been itching to run this
type of system for a long time. There is
a certain someone in his past who hints at that.
I’m
speaking of Tim Tebow, who McDaniels drafted and groomed for this type of
system during his short stay in Denver as the Broncos head coach. Tebow was, according to McDaniels, supposed
to be just this sort of weapon when brought into the Denver organization.
Unfortunately for both individuals this never worked out – McDaniel’s was fired
about three quarters of the way through Tebow’s rookie year, Tebow had very
mixed success with John Fox the following season, and the truth is Tim Tebow
was never going to operate at the level of even half what Cam Newton can
be.
But that
doesn’t mean that McDaniels has ever stopped pining for what he might be able
to do with a QB that has the versatility to run the option, scramble out of the
pocket and fire quick slants to receivers that will find themselves in one on
one man coverages due to the need to pack the line to stuff the run. These days, getting receivers in these sorts
of one on one matchups is the holy grail of offensive planning. Rule changes make these sorts of situations
much more favorable to receivers. McDaniels must be salivating at the
possibilities that might open up if he can continue to force defenses to commit
to stopping Newton before blanketing Patriots’ pass catchers.
Playing
on a Different Field
When
assessing, team by team, which player/position you would least like to see
injured the first answer for EVERY NFL team is quarterback. It’s just the nature of the game. There is no team that wants to see their starting
QB go down, no team that feels they are adequately staffed at back up, no team
that treats this as anything other than a nightmare situation. If anyone tries to answer differently they
are just kidding both you and themselves.
The more
interesting question, team by team, is who the NEXT most critical position
player might be. Back about 30-40 years ago the answer would very often be the
middle linebacker (or “Mike”) who would be tasked with setting the defense
prior to the snap. Think Mike Singletary in the Bears 46 defense. This could still be the case with some teams
– but it is less so now than it used to be.
I think today you would see a number of teams pointing to the leader of
their secondary (given the number of passes now thrown per game) or their
primary receiver as the player they could least afford to lose (after their
QB). Others might point to the left
tackle or maybe, for certain offenses, the primary running back might still be
the answer (though I doubt it).
For the
Patriots I’m not sure who it would be.
The team is designed to absorb the loss of any one player. But – in a somewhat offbeat way – I think that
the loss of their punter might impact the Patriots more than anyone else. This is because of one of Bill Belichick’s
central tenets and how he structures his philosophy of the game.
One of the
primary goals the Patriots have for every game is to play on a shorter field
than the other team. (Look – every team
has this belief but it is core to the way the Pats play). To put it very simply
– if your average drive starts from the 35 yard line, while the other team gets
the ball on the 15 – and assuming you have the ball for about 10 possessions
the following good things happen:
· - Your QB can throw for up to 200 less
yards than the opponent and have just as good a game.
· - A “big play” for you covers 12.5
yards while an opponent needs 18 for the same impact.
· - Your defense can afford to give up
more yards, blitz less, run more man coverage and still win.
Every
single one of those factors came in to play on Sunday. Cam Newton threw the ball only 19 times for
155 yards – hardly earth-shattering numbers.
He was easily the most impactful player on the field. If you eliminate Ryan Izzo’s only catch no
Patriots player had a reception longer than the three top Dolphins. The Pats plays were still more impactful. The
Patriot’s defense gave up some big plays (especially via penalty) but
essentially held Miami to a single score per half.
So, what
stat represents best how this was achieved?
If you go to the ESPN box score and look all the way down to the bottom
– under the “Punting” stat you’ll see something called “IN 20”. That reflects the number of punts that left
the opposing team pinned inside their 20-yard line. For the Patriots that number is “3”. For Miami it is “0”.
Now – that stat
is sometimes important and other times not so much – but the concept it seeks
to uncover, the degree of difficulty placed on an opponent to construct a
meaningful drive – is always important.
The Patriots continually seek to make the game harder for the opponent
in ways that do not involve actual football plays. They know the rules better (that is why you
always hear the cry of “cheaters” from those not as well versed), they
understood first how to defer a win on the coin flip, they know when to take an
intentional safety, they understand how the score will dictate the percentage
of pass v. run and they get how making the field of play longer can benefit
your team.
Because they
maximize these advantages Belichick defenses can finish well back in the
defensive rankings in yardage surrendered and still near the top of the pack in
scoring defense. This effort is keyed
off a strong special teams’ emphasis (while we’re having this discussion, Matthew
Slater should be in the Hall of Fame) and high regard for positional play.
Which means
that having a strategically sound directional punter is very important to the
Patriots’ success. It also raises a bit
of a concern. The other part of the
positional kicking game is kickoffs – and on several occasions the Pats blasted
the ball through the end zone on Sunday. Quite possibly this is no big deal –
but when Stephen Gostkowski was kicking well one of his specialties was
dropping his kickoffs between the 5 and 1 yard line – forcing teams to make a
return and leaving them often at about the 15 yard line. When the Patriots received kickoffs they
would usually get the typical touchback, start from the 25 and, right there,
gain a ten-yard field position advantage.
Ghost is gone (correctly, if you saw his performance this week with
Tennessee) but so is his skill on kick offs.
I don’t believe Belichick wants to spend the year routinely surrendering
touchbacks. I would like to see a return
to making teams return.
CLOSING NOTE
After
seeing Cam Newton’s banana colored suit I did not believe there could be a more
iconic image than that associated with Week 1.
Then Bill Belichick gave his review of fan-free stadiums in post game
commentary, and right away we had a new winner.
If you didn’t see either – here they are in all their glory.
https://www.facebook.com/625817250866040/videos/798481897642500
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